In an unexpected, but positive, turn of events, researchers from the University of Sydney say we could reach zero new cases of COVID-19 as early as July this year – if at least 90% of us comply with social distancing guidelines.
Their advice is based on sophisticated modelling, which clearly shows that Australia’s COVID-19 curve is flattening at an encouraging rate.
However, the team says there needs to be widespread testing to detect asymptomatic cases of COVID-19, and social distancing measures must stay in place up to four weeks after the person with the last known infection has recovered or the curve will shoot back up.
The University of Sydney modelling assumes that Australia hits its peak in the number of new cases being reported in late March – and will hit a peak in the number of active vases of between 8,000 and 10,000.
Currently, Australia has just over 6,000 confirmed cases.
“The incidence peak is fairly clear,” Professor Mikhail Prokopenko (pictured), the director of the Centre for Complex Systems at Sydney University who is leading the team, said. “It has fallen and if nothing outrageous happens again, like an outbreak or a new cruise ship disaster, it will continue going down.”
But if fewer people stick to the social distancing rules, the number of cases will continue to rise, he adds.
“The task is bringing this to zero. Not five, not one, to zero. Because if you still have one remaining case, that one remaining case will go to two the next day, to four the next, and then you get exponential growth.”
So, we can avoid the curve going back up again – but we need to be careful.
With that said, this Easter, stay safe, keep your distance and remember that we are all alone together.
